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Journal > Why Minsk Agreement Failed

Why Minsk Agreement Failed

April 15th, 2021

As the second anniversary of the Minsk II agreement passed, the smouldering Russian-Ukrainian conflict continued in the Donbass region, sometimes simmering at a higher temperature, sometimes at a lower temperature. But the fighting isn`t over. Unfortunately, there are few signs of a better future for the implementation of Minsk II, especially because the Kremlin does not seem to want peace. Until Russia and the separatists backed by it have the political will to implement the security provisions of the Minsk agreements, a strong transatlantic alliance will be of the utmost importance. To this end, the BILATERAL US-Russian format, which deals with the crisis but excludes Ukraine and the EU, should be abolished. Instead, the United States should be invited, along with France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, to join the Normandy format. On March 2, 2016, michael Carpenter, head of the U.S. Department of Defense, said that at least 430 Ukrainian soldiers had died since the signing of Minsk II, that Russia had “command and control ties” on the DPR and LPR, and that Russia was dumping “heavy weapons” into the Donbass. [63] The deputy head of the OSCE mission in Ukraine Alexander Hug said on 25 March 2016 that from the beginning of the conflict, the OSCE had observed “armed persons with Russian insignia” in the Donbass in combat, that they had spoken to prisoners who said they were Russian soldiers and that they had “seen traces of tires , not the vehicles themselves, but the tracks of vehicles crossing the Russian border.” [64] Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on 27 March 2016 that Russia “is not a party to the Minsk agreements” and that the agreements are “two opposing sides.” [65] However, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe states that the Minsk Protocol also includes the release of hostages who have been abducted from Ukrainian territory and are being held illegally in Russia. B as Nadia Savchenko and Oleg Sentsov. [66] Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande met Ukrainian President Poroshenko and Russian President Putin in Minsk on 11-12 February to find a solution to end the resumption of fighting in the Donbass (the first Minsk agreement had clearly failed). The meeting proposed a 13-point plan that aims not only to achieve a ceasefire, but also to define political measures to end the conflict, promote a return to normality and allow the restoration of full Ukrainian sovereignty. Moscow`s decision on 18 February to temporarily recognise documents and certificates issued by the separatist authorities marks a new stage in the creeping erosion of the agreements.

However, for all parties to agree that a Minsk III is necessary, the situation will have to get worse. Right now, both sides and their supporters have a common need to maintain the pretext that there is no alternative to put pressure on others. Russia`s withdrawal from Eastern Donbass from Ukraine and the implementation of the Minsk agreements will be possible as soon as the Kremlin has a strong interest in the West lifting its sanctions against Russia. The only practical way to implement the agreements would be a large and heavily armed UN peacekeeping mission, which Russia would have to approve in the UN Security Council and which would probably be part of it. As part of this mission, Russia would benefit from a certain territory that would probably become a haven for many of the criminals who now form the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People`s Republics. When the Soviet Union fell and Ukraine gained independence in 1991, the country faced many problems: how to forge a national identity, whether they should look at the European Union and America as an example to emulate, and how to forge a modern, democratic and uncorrupted political and economic system.

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